WALK THE TALK: The EU Needs an Effective Early Warning System to match its ambitions to Prevent Conflict and promote Peace. By Lucia Montanaro and Julia Schünemann (2011)

"Early warning is a process that alerts decision-makers to the potential outbreak, escalation and resurgence of violent conflict. It is a basis for informed decision-making and a tool to manage political priorities and objectives. An early warning system: a) includes systematic monitoring, collection, ordering and analysis of information (based on qualitative and quantitative conflict analysis methods); b) promotes a better understanding of conflict
dynamics and impacts; c) provides forecasts of potential developments; and d) presents options for the purpose of decision-making on early and effective response through relevant instruments and mechanisms. Lastly, early warning necessarily comprises communicating information and analysis to decision-makers in a position to take preventive and/or mitigating action" (Lucia Montanaro and Julia Schünemann: 2011;7)